Retail footfall is rising, but not in the way brands expected

The latest retail footfall figures suggest a lift, but the detail tells a more complicated story. March recorded a 2.4 per cent year on year increase according to the latest BRC data, a figure that on paper signals recovery, yet falls short of what many retailers had anticipated given how the month was structured.

Timing should have worked in retail’s favour. Mother’s Day, St Patrick’s Day and an earlier Easter all landed within a tight window, creating the kind of calendar clustering that typically drives store visits. In previous years, that combination would have produced a sharper spike. This time, the response was more measured.

Recent data from MRI and BRC highlights just how sensitive footfall has become to external conditions. Easter delivered a 3.4 per cent uplift year on year, while a period of strong sunshine drove a 21.1 per cent increase in visits. In contrast, February’s prolonged wet weather saw high street footfall fall by 4.7 per cent. The pattern is clear. Consumers are still spending, but when and how they choose to show up is far less predictable.

That unpredictability is beginning to define the retail environment. Shoppers are no longer reacting as strongly to single moments in the calendar. Instead, purchases are being spread more deliberately across weeks and seasons, influenced not just by promotions or holidays, but by weather, wider economic pressure and personal timing.

Melissa Minkow, Global Director of Retail Strategy and Insights at CI&T, points to this shift as a key challenge for the sector. While clustered shopping occasions can still create momentum, they no longer guarantee it. Consumers are more selective, more aware of their spending, and less likely to respond impulsively to short term retail triggers.

For retailers, the implication is less about driving demand and more about keeping up with it. Forecasting has moved beyond seasonal planning into something far more fluid, where multiple variables need to be tracked in real time. Weather patterns, calendar timing and consumer sentiment are all playing a role, often simultaneously.

Those best positioned to respond are the ones treating demand as something that moves, rather than something that can be fixed in advance. Inventory management, pricing and in-store strategy all need to adjust accordingly, not after the fact but as conditions shift.

The headline figure points to growth, but the underlying trend is one of fragmentation. Footfall is still there, but it is arriving differently.